Our model
Before every game our model gives each team its chance to win. Here is how often the team it favored went on to win.
NFL
2026 season
60.8%
73 right, 47 wrong
All time, since 2017
63.7%
1,659 right, 947 wrong
When at least 70% sure
75.0%
602 right, 201 wrong
Latest: Week 8, 2026
FinalModel: SEA 69% ✗ wrong
Bears34
Seahawks17
FinalModel: WAS 52% ✓ right
Eagles10
Commanders27
FinalModel: NE 72% ✓ right
Patriots24
Dolphins19
FinalModel: DEN 65% ✓ right
Chiefs24
Broncos28
FinalModel: LA 78% ✓ right
Chargers9
Rams24
FinalModel: TB 55% ✓ right
Falcons0
Buccaneers16
FinalModel: PIT 69% ✓ right
Browns6
Steelers27
FinalModel: NYJ 52% ✗ wrong
Raiders38
Jets33
FinalModel: JAX 80% ✓ right
Colts7
Jaguars42
FinalModel: MIN 53% ✗ wrong
Vikings15
Lions19
Final/OTModel: DAL 69% ✗ wrong
Cardinals33
Cowboys30
Final/OTModel: CIN 85% ✓ right
Titans36
Bengals43
FinalModel: BUF 74% ✓ right
Ravens10
Bills36
FinalModel: GB 67% ✓ right
Panthers19
Packers27
Our model picked 10 of 14 winners. Its record ›
Season by season
| Season | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 120 | 73 | 60.8% | |
| 2025 | 284 | 183 | 64.4% | |
| 2024 | 285 | 192 | 67.4% | |
| 2023 | 285 | 172 | 60.4% | |
| 2022 | 282 | 182 | 64.5% | |
| 2021 | 284 | 171 | 60.2% | |
| 2020 | 268 | 175 | 65.3% | |
| 2019 | 266 | 171 | 64.3% | |
| 2018 | 265 | 162 | 61.1% | |
| 2017 | 267 | 178 | 66.7% |
By how sure it was
| Chance it gave its pick | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 974 | 530 | 54.4% | |
| 60–70% | 829 | 527 | 63.6% | |
| 70–80% | 559 | 399 | 71.4% | |
| 80% and more | 244 | 203 | 83.2% |
A model that is right about as often as it says it is sure can be trusted on its percentages.
How it works
- Every team has a rating. A win raises it and a loss lowers it, more for a big margin or for beating a stronger team.
- Before a game, the two ratings and home field give each team its chance to win.
- Between seasons every rating moves a third of the way back to average.
- Each pick uses only the games played before it. Our games start in 2016; that season set the first ratings and is not counted. Ties are not counted either.
- These are estimates for fans, not betting advice.
Other sports
NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, College Football, College Basketball: our model starts picking their games once their scores are on the site. Until then you will find their news here.