Our model
Before every game our model gives each team its chance to win. Here is how often the team it favored went on to win, sport by sport.
By sport, all time
| Sport | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL since 2017 | 2,606 | 1,659 | 63.7% | |
| NBA since 2024-25 | 2,633 | 1,745 | 66.3% | |
| NHL since 2024-25 | 2,947 | 1,672 | 56.7% | |
| MLB since 2024 | 7,348 | 4,122 | 56.1% | |
| MLS since 2024 | 1,164 | 752 | 64.6% | |
| College Football since 2024 | 1,950 | 1,440 | 73.8% | |
| College Basketball since 2025-26 | 2,435 | 1,832 | 75.2% |
MLB
2026 season
55.8%
1,371 right, 1,085 wrong
All time, since 2024
56.1%
4,122 right, 3,226 wrong
When at least 70% sure
73.2%
101 right, 37 wrong
Latest: Wed, Oct 28
Our model picked 1 of 1 winner. Its record ›
Season by season
| Season | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2,456 | 1,371 | 55.8% | |
| 2025 | 2,452 | 1,388 | 56.6% | |
| 2024 | 2,440 | 1,363 | 55.9% |
By how sure it was
| Chance it gave its pick | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 5,663 | 3,070 | 54.2% | |
| 60–70% | 1,547 | 951 | 61.5% | |
| 70–80% | 138 | 101 | 73.2% | |
| 80% and more | 0 | 0 | – |
A model that is right about as often as it says it is sure can be trusted on its percentages.
How it works
- Every team has a rating. A win raises it and a loss lowers it, more for a big margin or for beating a stronger team.
- Before a game, the two ratings and home advantage give each team its chance to win. Each sport has its own home advantage and its own pace of change: one hockey or baseball game says less about a team than one football game.
- Between seasons every rating moves part of the way back to average.
- Each pick uses only the games played before it. Our MLB games start in the 2023 season; that season set the first ratings and is not counted. Ties and draws are not counted either.
- These are estimates for fans, not betting advice.