Our model
Before every game our model gives each team its chance to win. Here is how often the team it favored went on to win, sport by sport.
By sport, all time
| Sport | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL since 2017 | 2,606 | 1,659 | 63.7% | |
| NBA since 2024-25 | 2,633 | 1,745 | 66.3% | |
| NHL since 2024-25 | 2,947 | 1,672 | 56.7% | |
| MLB since 2024 | 7,348 | 4,122 | 56.1% | |
| MLS since 2024 | 1,164 | 752 | 64.6% | |
| College Football since 2024 | 1,950 | 1,440 | 73.8% | |
| College Basketball since 2025-26 | 2,435 | 1,832 | 75.2% |
College Football
2026 season
74.6%
353 right, 120 wrong
All time, since 2024
73.8%
1,440 right, 510 wrong
When at least 70% sure
87.7%
618 right, 87 wrong
Latest: Sat, Oct 31
FinalModel: FRES 58% ✓ right
Oregon State22
Fresno State38
FinalModel: UNLV 80% ✓ right
Northern Illinois24
UNLV31
FinalModel: BSU 73% ✓ right
Texas State45
Boise State46
FinalModel: MEM 55% ✓ right
Army22
Memphis49
FinalModel: NEB 61% ✗ wrong
Washington17
Nebraska10
FinalModel: MIZ 63% ✓ right
Missouri34
Arkansas10
FinalModel: MIA 78% ✓ right
Miami38
North Carolina35
FinalModel: TEX 80% ✓ right
Mississippi State3
Texas31
FinalModel: OSU 66% ✗ wrong
Ohio State18
USC30
FinalModel: PITT 72% ✓ right
Georgia Tech11
Pittsburgh34
FinalModel: SDSU 62% ✓ right
Washington State20
San Diego State26
FinalModel: FSU 51% ✗ wrong
Clemson36
Florida State24
FinalModel: ISU 57% ✓ right
Oklahoma State49
Iowa State51
FinalModel: GS 54% ✓ right
App State3
Georgia Southern19
FinalModel: PSU 70% ✓ right
Purdue17
Penn State31
FinalModel: UCLA 87% ✓ right
Nevada0
UCLA27
FinalModel: OU 62% ✗ wrong
South Carolina42
Oklahoma25
FinalModel: WAKE 75% ✓ right
Virginia7
Wake Forest51
FinalModel: UTAH 67% ✓ right
Utah49
Cincinnati25
Final/OTModel: IND 86% ✓ right
Minnesota16
Indiana23
FinalModel: LIB 77% ✓ right
Florida International10
Liberty49
FinalModel: TCU 69% ✓ right
Kansas16
TCU22
FinalModel: UGA 75% ✓ right
Florida8
Georgia27
FinalModel: BYU 76% ✓ right
Arizona State20
BYU27
FinalModel: ORE 60% ✓ right
Northwestern26
Oregon34
FinalModel: LOU 77% ✓ right
Stanford24
Louisville52
FinalModel: AF 52% ✓ right
UConn26
Air Force35
Final/OTModel: KSU 65% ✗ wrong
Kansas State24
Colorado27
FinalModel: GS 52% ✗ wrong
Coastal Carolina31
Georgia State20
FinalModel: OD 60% ✗ wrong
Marshall36
Old Dominion23
FinalModel: MISS 80% ✓ right
Auburn15
Ole Miss45
FinalModel: MICH 62% ✓ right
Michigan28
Rutgers21
FinalModel: SMU 75% ✗ wrong
SMU27
Syracuse30
FinalModel: NCST 70% ✓ right
California10
NC State31
FinalModel: IOWA 66% ✓ right
Wisconsin0
Iowa30
FinalModel: TTU 55% ✓ right
Arizona26
Texas Tech34
FinalModel: USF 81% ✓ right
UAB10
South Florida30
FinalModel: ND 81% ✓ right
Notre Dame35
Navy13
FinalModel: ILL 66% ✓ right
Illinois20
Maryland17
FinalModel: DUKE 73% ✓ right
Boston College2
Duke47
Our model picked 32 of 40 winners. Its record ›
Season by season
| Season | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 473 | 353 | 74.6% | |
| 2025 | 738 | 556 | 75.3% | |
| 2024 | 739 | 531 | 71.9% |
By how sure it was
| Chance it gave its pick | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 602 | 348 | 57.8% | |
| 60–70% | 643 | 474 | 73.7% | |
| 70–80% | 454 | 382 | 84.1% | |
| 80% and more | 251 | 236 | 94.0% |
A model that is right about as often as it says it is sure can be trusted on its percentages.
How it works
- Every team has a rating. A win raises it and a loss lowers it, more for a big margin or for beating a stronger team.
- Before a game, the two ratings and home advantage give each team its chance to win. Each sport has its own home advantage and its own pace of change: one hockey or baseball game says less about a team than one football game.
- Between seasons every rating moves part of the way back to average.
- Each pick uses only the games played before it. Our College Football games start in the 2023 season; that season set the first ratings and is not counted. Ties and draws are not counted either.
- These are estimates for fans, not betting advice.