Our model
Before every game our model gives each team its chance to win. Here is how often the team it favored went on to win, sport by sport.
By sport, all time
| Sport | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL since 2017 | 2,606 | 1,659 | 63.7% | |
| NBA since 2024-25 | 2,633 | 1,745 | 66.3% | |
| NHL since 2024-25 | 2,947 | 1,672 | 56.7% | |
| MLB since 2024 | 7,348 | 4,122 | 56.1% | |
| MLS since 2024 | 1,164 | 752 | 64.6% | |
| College Football since 2024 | 1,950 | 1,440 | 73.8% | |
| College Basketball since 2025-26 | 2,435 | 1,832 | 75.2% |
NBA
2026-27 season
59.4%
63 right, 43 wrong
All time, since 2024-25
66.3%
1,745 right, 888 wrong
When at least 70% sure
75.5%
925 right, 300 wrong
Latest: Yesterday
FinalModel: LAC 57% ✗ wrong
Raptors125
Clippers118
FinalModel: GSW 65% ✓ right
Suns113
Warriors116
FinalModel: LAL 73% ✓ right
Heat117
Lakers138
FinalModel: DEN 72% ✗ wrong
Trail Blazers118
Nuggets110
FinalModel: SAS 94% ✓ right
Jazz97
Spurs119
FinalModel: HOU 64% ✓ right
Celtics93
Rockets109
FinalModel: MIN 89% ✓ right
Bucks100
Timberwolves112
FinalModel: MEM 63% ✗ wrong
Pelicans135
Grizzlies134
FinalModel: DAL 79% ✗ wrong
Kings115
Mavericks100
FinalModel: ORL 86% ✗ wrong
Wizards103
Magic94
FinalModel: NYK 94% ✓ right
Nets90
Knicks103
FinalModel: ATL 61% ✓ right
Hawks108
Pacers104
FinalModel: DET 57% ✓ right
Pistons124
Hornets91
FinalModel: PHI 86% ✓ right
Bulls107
76ers126
FinalModel: CLE 50% ✗ wrong
Thunder117
Cavaliers112
Our model picked 9 of 15 winners. Its record ›
Season by season
| Season | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 106 | 63 | 59.4% | |
| 2025-26 | 1,265 | 859 | 67.9% | |
| 2024-25 | 1,262 | 823 | 65.2% |
By how sure it was
| Chance it gave its pick | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 717 | 406 | 56.6% | |
| 60–70% | 691 | 414 | 59.9% | |
| 70–80% | 631 | 435 | 68.9% | |
| 80% and more | 594 | 490 | 82.5% |
A model that is right about as often as it says it is sure can be trusted on its percentages.
How it works
- Every team has a rating. A win raises it and a loss lowers it, more for a big margin or for beating a stronger team.
- Before a game, the two ratings and home advantage give each team its chance to win. Each sport has its own home advantage and its own pace of change: one hockey or baseball game says less about a team than one football game.
- Between seasons every rating moves part of the way back to average.
- Each pick uses only the games played before it. Our NBA games start in the 2023-24 season; that season set the first ratings and is not counted. Ties and draws are not counted either.
- These are estimates for fans, not betting advice.