Our model
Before every game our model gives each team its chance to win. Here is how often the team it favored went on to win, sport by sport.
By sport, all time
| Sport | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL since 2017 | 2,606 | 1,659 | 63.7% | |
| NBA since 2024-25 | 2,633 | 1,745 | 66.3% | |
| NHL since 2024-25 | 2,947 | 1,672 | 56.7% | |
| MLB since 2024 | 7,348 | 4,122 | 56.1% | |
| MLS since 2024 | 1,164 | 752 | 64.6% | |
| College Football since 2024 | 1,950 | 1,440 | 73.8% | |
| College Basketball since 2025-26 | 2,435 | 1,832 | 75.2% |
College Basketball
2026-27 season
88.2%
67 right, 9 wrong
All time, since 2025-26
75.2%
1,832 right, 603 wrong
When at least 70% sure
92.1%
885 right, 76 wrong
Latest: Yesterday
FinalModel: USC 66% ✓ right
Milwaukee63
USC95
FinalModel: ARIZ 66% ✗ wrong
UCLA84
Arizona75
Final/OTModel: SMC 77% ✓ right
Illinois State85
Saint Mary's90
FinalModel: ASU 66% ✓ right
East Tennessee State65
Arizona State75
FinalModel: ORE 65% ✓ right
Montana69
Oregon87
FinalModel: STAN 74% ✓ right
Eastern Washington65
Stanford74
FinalModel: UW 66% ✓ right
Colgate76
Washington90
FinalModel: ORST 64% ✓ right
Weber State61
Oregon State102
FinalModel: BAY 72% ✓ right
Northwestern State65
Baylor87
FinalModel: UNT 69% ✓ right
Southwestern Christian50
North Texas122
FinalModel: FSU 65% ✓ right
Florida A&M69
Florida State112
FinalModel: MINN 67% ✓ right
North Dakota50
Minnesota85
FinalModel: UCONN 85% ✓ right
Gardner-Webb46
UConn86
FinalModel: TEX 78% ✓ right
Chicago State59
Texas109
FinalModel: COLO 66% ✓ right
Abilene Christian59
Colorado94
FinalModel: HOU 85% ✓ right
La Salle55
Houston94
FinalModel: UTAH 59% ✓ right
Long Beach State63
Utah66
FinalModel: OSU 50% ✗ wrong
Ohio State83
BYU94
FinalModel: LOU 80% ✓ right
Chattanooga70
Louisville84
FinalModel: WSU 61% ✗ wrong
Davidson76
Washington State61
FinalModel: FRES 58% ✓ right
Fresno Pacific79
Fresno State88
FinalModel: OKST 65% ✓ right
Incarnate Word60
Oklahoma State91
FinalModel: MISS 74% ✓ right
Alcorn State58
Ole Miss99
FinalModel: NW 70% ✓ right
Binghamton60
Northwestern86
FinalModel: WAKE 74% ✓ right
Maryland Eastern Shore62
Wake Forest83
FinalModel: AS 60% ✓ right
Toledo70
Arkansas State71
FinalModel: SMU 76% ✓ right
Southern72
SMU85
Final/OTModel: TULN 58% ✓ right
UT Martin98
Tulane100
FinalModel: TCU 75% ✓ right
Lindenwood59
TCU98
FinalModel: CREI 70% ✓ right
Kansas City61
Creighton76
FinalModel: ILL 87% ✓ right
Fairleigh Dickinson45
Illinois120
FinalModel: KU 77% ✓ right
Fordham65
Kansas95
FinalModel: OU 76% ✗ wrong
East Texas A&M68
Oklahoma64
FinalModel: TXST 69% ✓ right
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi55
Texas State67
FinalModel: CAL 67% ✓ right
Adams State86
California115
FinalModel: USF 78% ✓ right
Charleston Southern71
South Florida98
FinalModel: PSU 59% ✓ right
Canisius57
Penn State97
FinalModel: NEB 80% ✓ right
Le Moyne64
Nebraska106
FinalModel: HALL 69% ✓ right
Saint Peter's42
Seton Hall66
FinalModel: UGA 78% ✓ right
North Carolina Central62
Georgia78
FinalModel: MARQ 70% ✓ right
Mercyhurst43
Marquette78
FinalModel: GW 51% ✓ right
Navy39
George Washington91
FinalModel: NCST 75% ✓ right
Campbell64
NC State83
FinalModel: WIS 79% ✓ right
Denver68
Wisconsin75
FinalModel: GONZ 52% ✓ right
Gonzaga78
Purdue72
FinalModel: MSST 65% ✓ right
Tennessee Tech88
Mississippi State106
FinalModel: PITT 68% ✓ right
Rider57
Pittsburgh95
FinalModel: SYR 68% ✓ right
New Haven58
Syracuse74
FinalModel: UNC 79% ✓ right
Western Carolina72
North Carolina80
FinalModel: JMU 61% ✗ wrong
Miami (OH)86
James Madison77
FinalModel: XAV 66% ✓ right
Mount St. Mary's52
Xavier97
FinalModel: CLEM 80% ✓ right
Stetson72
Clemson85
FinalModel: DAY 75% ✓ right
NJIT58
Dayton89
FinalModel: IND 74% ✓ right
Eastern Illinois57
Indiana91
FinalModel: ISU 73% ✗ wrong
Memphis80
Iowa State76
FinalModel: MRSH 66% ✓ right
Buffalo65
Marshall92
FinalModel: MD 67% ✓ right
Bucknell67
Maryland96
FinalModel: CCU 64% ✗ wrong
Eastern Michigan71
Coastal Carolina70
FinalModel: PROV 64% ✓ right
Maine56
Providence83
FinalModel: WS 81% ✓ right
Air Force71
Wright State102
Final/OTModel: UCF 71% ✓ right
Florida Gulf Coast95
UCF96
FinalModel: WVU 72% ✓ right
Niagara46
West Virginia91
FinalModel: VAN 82% ✓ right
Bellarmine47
Vanderbilt93
FinalModel: MSU 81% ✓ right
Quinnipiac59
Michigan State96
FinalModel: TTU 83% ✓ right
Jackson State42
Texas Tech76
FinalModel: BUT 65% ✓ right
Lafayette60
Butler96
FinalModel: CIN 73% ✓ right
American University53
Cincinnati79
FinalModel: GTWN 69% ✓ right
Loyola Maryland58
Georgetown80
FinalModel: SJU 83% ✓ right
Monmouth63
St. John's78
FinalModel: DUKE 91% ✓ right
Army50
Duke84
FinalModel: UF 66% ✓ right
Miami67
Florida77
FinalModel: MICH 89% ✓ right
Oakland68
Michigan84
FinalModel: SJS 71% ✓ right
UTSA74
San José State95
FinalModel: APP 59% ✓ right
App State63
Merrimack49
Our model picked 67 of 74 winners. Its record ›
Season by season
| Season | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 76 | 67 | 88.2% | |
| 2025-26 | 2,359 | 1,765 | 74.8% |
By how sure it was
| Chance it gave its pick | Games | Right | Hit rate | Hit rate as a bar; tick: 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 721 | 404 | 56.0% | |
| 60–70% | 753 | 543 | 72.1% | |
| 70–80% | 671 | 604 | 90.0% | |
| 80% and more | 290 | 281 | 96.9% |
A model that is right about as often as it says it is sure can be trusted on its percentages.
How it works
- Every team has a rating. A win raises it and a loss lowers it, more for a big margin or for beating a stronger team.
- Before a game, the two ratings and home advantage give each team its chance to win. Each sport has its own home advantage and its own pace of change: one hockey or baseball game says less about a team than one football game.
- Between seasons every rating moves part of the way back to average.
- Each pick uses only the games played before it. Our College Basketball games start in the 2024-25 season; that season set the first ratings and is not counted. Ties and draws are not counted either.
- These are estimates for fans, not betting advice.