Model Warns Against Patriots in Week 9 Survivor Pools

Published on November 4, 2026, the Week 9 NFL survivor-pool outlook cautions players against relying on the New England Patriots, even though they are favored at home against the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots are 5-3, as are the Packers, and New England is favored by three points.

The Patriots edged the Miami Dolphins 24-19 in Week 8 after trailing 13-3 at halftime. Quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes in eight starts for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns, with eight interceptions.

Green Bay has gone 2-2 on the road. Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns, completing 61.5% of his passes, while also throwing six interceptions. Receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have combined for 85 catches, 1,327 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Packers rank last in the league in rushing.

The projection model gives New England only a one-point winning margin, making the Patriots a less attractive survivor choice than other favorites, the analysis says. It recommends a different team that it estimates will win nearly 80% of simulations, but does not identify that pick in the publicly available details.

Week 9 has 15 games because two teams are on bye. Seattle is favored by 12.5 points against Arizona, while Houston is favored by 4.5 against the Chargers and San Francisco by 10 against Las Vegas. The Seahawks have won their past 10 matchups with the Cardinals, though many survivor-pool players have already used Seattle.