Browns at Saints

Browns at Saints: Watson in protocol, Sanders could start

The Cleveland Browns bring a 5-3 record to New Orleans after a 6-27 loss at Pittsburgh, while the Saints are 2-5 following a 10-16 setback to the same Steelers team. Cleveland is 2-3 on the road; New Orleans is winless at home at 0-3 and sits last in the NFC South. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol, so Shedeur Sanders could start Sunday. The Saints have won all 3 head-to-head meetings at home since 2016, including 35-14 in 2024, and need a win to avoid an 0-4 mark in the Superdome.

Keys to the game

• Shedeur Sanders could start at quarterback while Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol, and how he handles the Superdome likely shapes the game.
• Cleveland has allowed an NFL-high 33 sacks in 8 games. If Sanders plays, New Orleans' pass rush will try to make his afternoon difficult.
• New Orleans is 0-3 at home this season, while Cleveland is 2-3 on the road. The Saints' home-field edge has been missing, making this less of a mismatch.
• The Saints average 23.1 points per game to Cleveland's 17.4, but they also allow 27.7 points per game. The Browns' scoring defense (21.6) could keep them in a low-scoring matchup.
• The home team has won all 3 meetings since 2016, including New Orleans' 35-14 victory in the last matchup in 2024. That history favors the Saints, though their home form is poor.

Our take

Our model has New Orleans as a 51% favorite, and the details support that lean. The Saints score more (23.1 to 17.4), have won all 3 home meetings since 2016, and face a Browns offensive line that has allowed an NFL-high 33 sacks with a new quarterback potentially under center. The big caveat is New Orleans' 0-3 home record and Cleveland's stronger overall mark. If the Browns protect the quarterback, they can steal this; otherwise, the Saints' pressure should decide it.