Three Keys for Tampa Bay to Upset Chicago

Chicago enters the matchup favored at home after beating the defending Super Bowl champions. Tampa Bay has won three of its past four games and brings a strong rushing attack and defense, but has struggled overall this season.

The Buccaneers’ first priority will be containing Chicago’s ground game. The Bears average 150.8 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL, and run on 48.87% of their plays, the league’s fourth-highest rate. Yet their rushing success rate is 40.6%, and their rushing EPA per play is -0.096. Tampa Bay allows a 35.3% rushing success rate and -0.208 EPA per play on the ground, while giving up just 80 rushing yards per game, the second-lowest total in the league.

Tampa Bay will also need to show it can pass. The Buccaneers attempted only 14 passes for 64 yards across their last two games, wins in which their running game did most of the work. Against Chicago, they will face a different challenge, with defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons expected to reinforce the middle. Baker Mayfield will need to perform while managing a thumb injury, and the receiving group could be without Emeka Egbuka.

On defense, pressure on quarterback Caleb Williams will be central. The Buccaneers are expected to look to interior rushers Calijah Kancey and A’Shawn Robinson to disrupt him. Tampa Bay could also use more man coverage: Williams’ dropback EPA per play is +0.048 against man, compared with +0.294 against zone. The goal will be to limit his impact, even if he still makes plays.